The market has continued to consolidate more and more power around $36,000 to $38,000, proving that the market has entered a waiting phase when it stands towards the first respondent in the upcoming news line.
As we can see in the Bitcoin Price Analysis chart below, the consolidation between $35,000 and $40,000 lasted for 3 weeks, leading to a bullish breakout above $40,000, with ups and downs around $44,000. This bullish perspective was annihilated from the Ukraine situation when the entire financial system (from stock to cryptos) collapsed and enter an uncertainty phase.
The uncertainty in the crypto market lead the price down to $36,000, but as the situation gets more and more predictable, the price reaction was milder than expected. The evidence shows that the price went up to $38,000 and make some efforts to hold around this space.
The news that Russia will try to overcome bans and sanctions through crypto networks might have a positive effect on Bitcoin’s price formation but there is no evident connection between it and the price action. Of course, in times of high intensity, investors are looking for alternative solutions that could be more robust to permanent or temporary crises.
The evolution of Bitcoin price will be somehow affected by the war situation, as long as there is a spike in demand from citizens in Russia or Ukraine that will try to bypass the traditional banking or financial system. A spike of demand could force the price to drive above $40,000 and with more positive news, the trend could be established at higher levels than the current.
The expectations lay on the bullish side as the shock absorption was enough in the days when the markets went under panic. Thus, we can only expect better days during the upcoming period, following the market structure from now on.
The moving averages continue to move at bearish formation, showing that the market direction has not changed yet and there is a need for more positivity to change the price formation process at this point.
The trading volumes have calmed down to normal levels, as the majority of investors have passed through the first shock wave and they are trying to figure out what is going to be in the next period.
The consolidation is much more evident in the short-term period, showing that the market will try to find a new way to pass in the next bullish period. During the weekend, the price went up to $40,000 but the correction came immediately.
The situation needs to find a new way for passing the next bullish market, that will find a strong path above $40,000 and establish a new position around $44,000. Reclaiming the $44,000 point would be again the first step towards an overall recovery.
The overall recovery would be matched with a new all-time high-level prospect and a news story about how Bitcoin and cryptos can change the way we look in the financial system.
The day trading window of the Bitcoin Price Analysis has shown some interesting insights as always. The first signal at the late hours of Friday 25 February, showed that a minor bullish action is under work and we might see another trend in the weekend.
This signal was mildly confirmed as the price rose from $38,500 to $40,200 in just 8 hours in the early hours of Saturday 26, marking a quick recovery in the market formation. When the price hit that level, the correction was evident and the price returned to the $39,000 line.
The second signal was produced 8 hours after the correction from $39,500 to $37,800. This delayed signal production came with a loss for those who follow blindly those signals. As the signal can be considered as bearish, the traders are considered to be at loss for now.
That shows us that we should not follow blindly those signals and have the critical ability to observe if the market was ready for such a turn in the day trading scheme.
MACD index (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains in a negative field for now, but the momentum seems to grow for now. Growing momentum at this moment is crucial as the critical moment can come soon and find the market at the right position for another bullish position. If the market remains in the “reds” of the MACD index, breaking resistance levels would be more difficult than before.
The RSI index (Relative Strength Index) has moved to value = 45, showing that the market has not passed yet into the bullish phase. The most probable scenario would indicate a stable position around $38,000, which will be more strong if the market continues to move at this pace.
As you can see in this Bitcoin Price Analysis chart, both indexes could turn into valuable bullish insights but they should never be taken into account as sole indicators. Their value is added, compared to the overall situation, and from the next article, we will include them at the day trading window also.
The stability in the Bitcoin market has been evident during the last week, trying to calm down from the war crisis in Ukraine. The consolidation turns around $36,000 to $38,000, indicating that any effort towards the $40,000 wouldn’t be strong enough to establish a new trend.
We expect that the situation would remain on the same ropes unless there is a change in the storyline, affected by the global geopolitics and the reaction in the traditional markets.
Read our previous Bitcoin Price Analysises here!
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