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Bitcoin Price Analysis: A Rebound at $38,000 in the Aftermath of Ukraine Crisis

The Ukraine crisis brought every financial system under pressure and the Bitcoin market was no exception in this case.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC / USD – General Overview

More and more negative news of the Ukraine crisis and instability were flown into the market, dropping prices and indexes to local bottom levels.


In the Bitcoin market, the major support point relies on $35,000, which broke for some hours yesterday but the market started to recover quicker than expected. As we can see in the diagram below, the market was consolidated around $36,000 to $38,000, without showing any signals for a clear trend establishment.


Today, the market went above $38,000, showing that a potential uptrend could also happen in the next period. The resistance level has lowered, for now, setting down to $40,000 as a move beyond and above might look too bullish for the situation, and the correction would be immediate.


At this moment, we have two investor personas in the market that have taken different positions until now.


  • The first group is more traditional investors that embrace that Bitcoin would probably follow other traditional stock markets and an unstable situation would settle a negative trend, probably breaking previous support zones. Those investors are probably guys with more diversified portfolios, where they act as risk averters.Apart from that, they are willing to sell assets with a lower profit margin or at no profit at all to avoid any future coalitions with the asset. Also, they use to follow herding techniques, shorting more when the market remains in a bearish situation and riding the curve when the market looks bullish.


  • The second group of investors is people that believe Bitcoin will get benefitted from the situation in Ukraine and establish itself as the core resistance in the financial system against instabilities. War and inflation are two major issues in the current situation and many investors are looking for safe shelters.One of the potent shelters is Bitcoin, whose deflationary and global nature enables investors to preserve value over the years and use a global financial system to deliver value anywhere in the world. Those two characteristics make Bitcoin robust enough to be a lucrative investment for every investor, even at a small scale.


The moving averages have continued their bearish pattern, showing that there is more room for waiting in the current market situation.


The trading volumes have made a tremendous spike, marking the higher trading volume in the last months. This means that the market is in a contrarian position, with the two investors’ personas fighting over dominance and trying to establish a new trend.


This fight will continue for some more time until there is a clear message from the market that everything has been calm and we are ready for the next period.


Bitcoin / US Dollar: General Overview
Bitcoin / US Dollar: General Overview in Bitcoin Price Analysis, image from Tradingview

Bitcoin / US Dollar: Short Term Overview

In the short-term window of this Bitcoin Price Analysis, we can observe that the market volatility has been at lower levels if you take the market day by day. But if you look closely at February 24th, you will see that the Bitcoin price went throughout the entire consolidation zone.


This means that the BTC market flashly went from $40,000 to $34,000 in just a few hours, making day traders and volatility hunters much more eager to throw money in the market and expect profitable results. We expect that the volatility period would be over soon as the market will react differently in the next few days, according to the news from the Ukrainian crisis.


Bitcoin / US Dollar: Short Term View
Bitcoin / US Dollar: Short Term View in Bitcoin Price Analysis, image from Tradingview

Bitcoin / US Dollar: Day Trading Overview

The volatility can be much more clear in the day trading view when there is a clear breakdown between hours of activity. The fall happened in the first hours of 24th February, when the actual invasion happened and  Ukraine crisis started.


The rebound was instant and by the end of the day, the Bitcoin price has reached a touch before $40,000. This volatility that touches 15 % in a single day was the best thing that could happen to day-traders, as with proper options tools can make a lot of money out of it.


In the moving averages signals, two consecutive signals counteracted each other. The signals were given into consequential hours so there was little time to be exploited and deliver some profit to traders. The positioning at this time shows that a bullish signal might occur in the next few days but it will be on a short-term basis.


Bitcoin / US Dollar: Day Trading View
Bitcoin / US Dollar: Day Trading View in Bitcoin Price Analysis, image from Tradingview

Bitcoin / US Dollar: Indicators

MACD index (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has started to recover but the overall momentum lies on the negative side, indicating that the current situation has been serious enough for the Bitcoin market to extend into more days. The momentum remains bearish but the heavy losses might be already behind us.


The RSI index (Relative Strength Index) remained between values 40 and 45, showing that the market remains on a negative trend, following a stable position between $35,000 and $40,000. A major change in the RSI index would implicate the passage to another trend, bullish or bearish, according to the future situation.


Bitcoin / US Dollar: Indicators
Bitcoin / US Dollar: Indicators in Bitcoin Price Analysis, image from Tradingview

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusions

Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency eco system have not been uninvolved in the Ukraine crisis and war. The market followed a sudden drop but there was a fierce fight between bulls and bears.


The different perspectives on how Bitcoin will pass this crisis, made the price remain stable, with a lot of intra-day volatility. The people who believe that Bitcoin has been integrated into the financial system believe that Bitcoin will continue to drop along with traditional markets.


The people who believe that this is a new era for Bitcoin, have put more and more money into it.


Read our previous Bitcoin Price Analysises here!

George Foroglou

George Foroglou

George Foroglou heard first time about Bitcoin in a Christmas dinner in December 2013. As Finance student, he published articles regarding Bitcoin adoption, blockchain applications and IoT monetization strategies. From 2017, he is an active trader in the Bitcoin and other altcoins market, using mostly Technical Analysis. He has worked for plenty web portals, giving insightful articles about technical and fundamental analysis.


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