Bitcoin Price Analysis: Minor Surge for the Price, What’s Next Move?

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC / USD – General Overview

Bitcoin’s price manages to sustain a positive move after the new correction around $42,000, managing to climb up to $44,000. The $44,000 had been spotted as the support level before the great bullish rally in August and September 2021. A similar scenario could evolve possibly in the next period, under certain circumstances:

• Increasing momentum: Another turn in the current momentum could be sparked from an influencer’s decision (Elon Musk or FED) to correlate its interests with an uptrend in the Bitcoin market
• Strong support from the market depth: The bears are always trying to sell their assets or short sell their assets in a specific price range. If there is no call for someone to buy at this price range or lower than that, the bears will be forced to increase the price to sell and close the position.The market depth indicates 2 things: The first (1st) thing is that there are enough “believers” in the market that through analysis or instinct think that the market has reached a local bottom and the next moves will be on the uptrend. The second (2nd) thing is that many investors have entered the market around this level and to sustain their break-even position, keep flowing a part for their portfolio to sustain their portfolio in the “green area”.
• Positive Fundamentals: If there is not a major drawback from institutional players that have entered the Bitcoin market in terms of strategy, the fundamentals are always positive in the long term. This means that every move will return at higher levels but in longer periods.

The bullish expectations will bring the price around $47,000, which was the entry point for many institutional investors like Tesla and has remained the current support zone for the next bullish wave. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $40,000 will indicate another bearish wave that could lead the price, even around $35,000. The new bullish cycle will have better underlying conditions if the local bottom remains above the previous local bottom around $35,000.

The theory implicates that the new cycle could reach a new all-time high level when the starting bottom is higher than the previous one. The moving averages have positioned at a bearish level, indicating that the current situation will continue for the next few days. If the market continues to consolidate forces around $42,000, the moving averages will probably cross, establishing a bullish potential for the next moves.

The trading volumes made some severe spikes during the last few days, indicating that there is action in the market, if turned in the right direction, we can expect a breakthrough BTC price move towards any direction.

Bitcoin / US Dollar – Short-Term Overview

In the short-term window, we can observe that the current bearish move consists of several “steps”, where the market is trying to hold those positions. This means that several investors are willing to buy when there is a correction in the market. This process will go on until there are more investors in the market that “believe” at the bottom.

This is correlated with the current positioning from previous investors as there is more to come from new investors willing to fund a new bullish effort in the next period. As the expectations for a new acquisition around $47,000 are promising as we remain near $44,000, we believe that we might experience a, even flashy, recovery towards this level.

Bitcoin / US Dollar – Day Trading Overview

As we wrote in the Wednesday article, the parallel channel formed in the current situation could lead us to some very interesting positions in the 4-hour window. Our prediction was confirmed as the BTC price turned back from the $44,000 level and moved down to $42,000, remaining in the parallel channel.

As we have entered the 10th day of the new parallel position, we don’t know for how long this action will continue to exist. The expectations for a breakthrough move are higher than before and the momentum in the market makes us believe that the next action will be on the bullish side. The next days will be more interesting and we are waiting for them, with fingers crossed.

Bitcoin / US Dollar – Indicators

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) index is climbing in the charts, showing that the market momentum is increasing and the investors’ expectations are more bullish than before. The momentum factor remains crucial for the short-term development of the price and we expect to pass on the “green” side to confirm any bullish hints for the next period.

The RSI index jumped a little above the “buy” signal, indicating that the market has made a minor jump from $42,000 to $44,000 and there is a waiting period for higher levels. There is more room for growth in the current window and we expect that the RSI index has been positioned to exploit some short-term development for now. The SMA is positioned in a bearish position but we should take it under consideration if more indicators made a similar move.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Conclusion

Bitcoin has made a minor recovery process that will bring new, great data for the upcoming weekend. Those small moves could be the spark for the next bullish wave, fueled by smaller moves rather than a sudden move that will bring the market to higher levels.

This is something unusual for the Bitcoin (and the crypto) market in general, as sharp moves often drive the market to new price levels, either in bullish or bearish directions. Let’s see how the weekend evolves and we will see on Monday!