Analyst by the name PlanB had made a prediction that Bitcoin will hit $98K be end of November, but this will probably not happen, and the analyst will suffer his first miss on record using the Bitcoin price floor prediction model.
PlanB is preparing to accept defeat for the first time according to his Twitter update from Nov 25. He has been running ‘worst-case-scenario’ end of month forecasts which have otherwise come to pass.
Bitcoin is currently trading below $60K, which is almost $40K short of the predicted amount. The asset is far below what was expected to be its minimum monthly close for the month.
PlanB has acknowledged the unlikeliness of BTC/USD hitting $98,000 in the next five days, stating that floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct) in his Twitter comments.
Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 25, 2021
Previously, PlanB, author of The Bitcoin Standard and The Fiat Standard appeared on a podcast on Nov. 11, hosted by Saifedeann Ammous where he supported his prior confidence in the floor model which lay in its mathematical nature.
He is quoted stating, “if we don’t hit the $98,000 at the end of November, that would be a first on this specific indicator in the entire history of Bitcoin,” he said. His floor plan model has correctly predicted, almost perfectly, the monthly closing prices from August, September and October, which were $47,000, $43,000 and $63,000.
Although the floor plan has failed to achieve its predictions, it will not affect PlanB’s seminal stock-to-flow model series. The S2F currently demands an average BTC/USF price of $100,000 during the current halving cycle, with Q4 2021 provided as best timeframe for the level to appear for the first time.
Its sister model, stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) has gone further with a $288,000 average but has received criticism in past weeks as BTC has underperformed. PlanB rose above these comments, saying during the podcast that the gap between the spot price and the S2F model price has not yet threaten to invalidate it:
Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)
2021-11-24, 23:59 UTC
ln(actual / model)
Actual price: $57,141.83
Model price: $98,241.98
S2F multiple: -0.54 pic.twitter.com/uAV7JzJgMQ
— S2F Multiple (@s2fmultiple) November 25, 2021
The model uses standard deviation bands to track progress and regardless of the price of BTC in November, it has stayed well within the acceptable range.
Many other players are still bullish as the current price is considered as a consolidation as opposed to a crash.
Compared to last Thanksgiving though, hodlers are up over 20%. The price of BTC starting of the year was $29,000. These are figures many are thankful for, regardless of the failure to achieve the predictions.
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