The New Year’s weekend didn’t have any surprise move for the Bitcoin market, as the majority of investors were celebrating the new year 2022 and didn’t care about Bitcoin or other cryptos. In technical terms, the $47,000 support zone seems to be the most important point in the current market situation as it will derive the next steps in the market. The depth of the support zone has been remarkably strong, proving that the next step and turn in the market is not far from happening.
The market stays before three scenarios with probabilities. Let’s analyze them.
1) The consolidation scenario indicates that the market will continue to float around the $47,000 zone, without any surprising moves in either direction. This move will not continue for a long time as the consolidation movements are suppressing power in the market, that could explode at any time, delivering the next big thing in it. So any stabilizing moves in the current market situation will just delay any further reactions.
2) The negative scenario will be a break in the support zone at $47,000. A downtrend will lead the price to the next support level around $44,000, which was the previous market support point. If that point collapsed also, the next zone could be considered the bearish zone around $35,000. The negative scenario will be connected with a general downtrend and correction along with traditional markets as today’s market situation is considered integrated until a certain point.
Another negative point in the current analysis is the support testing. The technical theory indicates that if a support level is tested several times, it is more likely to break in the short-term future. As the market tests the $47,000 support level, there are probabilities of breaking in the next few days, without major probabilities.
3) The positive scenario, at this moment, is based on the “head & shoulders” pattern, which appears now. The “head & shoulders” pattern often indicates a change in the established trend. If we take into consideration that the current trend is a bearish one, a “head &shoulders” pattern will bring an uptrend move until the next resistance zone between $52,000 and $56,000. This uptrend will bring Bitcoin back in the bullish path and towards new all-time high levels.
The positive scenario remains the strongest possibility, for now, following from the consolidation scenario as the market correction has moved enough and the support level at $47,000 seems quite strong at this point.
The moving averages (50-day and 200-day) crossed again each other, at a bearish formation, indicating that the market will continue its bearish trend, breaking the $47,000 support level. As the market remains at the consolidation phase, we expect a minor reaction towards this signal as many of the signals during stable periods is fake.
The trading volumes remained at normal levels, without any significant move that brought a change in the market structure.
In the short-term view, we can observe that the “head & shoulders” pattern is far more evident, indicating that a change in trend could happen in the short-term window, without creating severe changes in the long-term view.
The results in the short-term horizon could produce less effective conditions for the long-term horizon if something doesn’t change in the fundamental analysis. As we don’t have any severe change in the fundamentals, we don’t expect a long-term changing move from this market point. The next point will probably be the $50,000 point again, confirming both the bullish and the returning to the average theory.
Drawing smaller time frames on the charts could reveal some hidden movements that could be exploited from day-traders. On the last day of 2021, and practically in the last hours of it, the price fell from $48,000 to $45,500 in a couple of hours. The instant correction made the market react in the progress of the next few days, as the price recovered slowly during the weekend.
This quick correction from the market enabled several day-traders that were in front of their monitors in the first days of 2022 and managed to buy the dip and gain some quick profits as the market was ready to rebound after the steep correction. The consolidation in the day-trading window indicates also a large-scale move could emerge at any time, providing opportunities for traders for profitable trades. The moving averages crossed again each other, predicting a minor rebound in the current situation.
MACD index managed to stay in the “green” area, indicating that there is a kind of momentum in the market. The existence of minor momentum in the market indicates that a bullish move could be on the way. As the MACD index is moving towards the zero line, there is less activity in the market but as it never crossed the “red” area, creating ambitions about what will happen next in the market.
The RSI index has remained around values 40 and 45, predicting a relatively stable situation with a potential negative outlook. The cross between SMA and RSI predicts that the price will surge in the next few days, bringing more positivity to the market. The confusing signals from the indicators lead to believe that the market will remain stable at least for the next period.
Bitcoin entered the new year 2022, with a stable price outlook of around $47,000, which has served several times as a support level in the past. The expectations are bullish for now, as the “head & shoulders” pattern predicts a change in the established bearish trend.
The best is coming for 2022 and every crypto investor is leaning towards a brighter future !!!
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